Translated Abstract
In light of the increasing role played by housing market in China in the past decade, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and analyze the relationship between the housing market and the macro economy. Housing demand are distinguished as demand for dwelling and investing in the model so do the households. Firms are also divided into housing prducers and consumption goods producers. Bayesian technique is employed to estimate the model. The five observables used in the estimation are total output, housing production, growth rate of money, inflation rate of CPI, and real housing prices, and they are from 2000 to 2012. We slao introduce six structural shocks (time preference, preference of households that purchase houses for dwelling purpose，technology both in the consumption good and husingproduction sector, mortgage lending，and monetary policy) to investige the effects of such shocks and their contribution to business cycle.The main results of this study are as follow. 1.Variation in total output is mainly driven by the supplyside, technology shock in the consumption good and housingproduction sector account for 80% of it, and the fluctuation in the housing market is an important source of variation in the economy. 2.Variation in real housing prices and housing production is mainly affected by the supplyside, the effect of the demandside is negligible. 3.Money policy shock has strong effects on the money supply and inflation, but not on the housing market and tatal output. 4. Shocks to mortgage lending play a rather limited role in the economy.The above results offer several implications for policies that aim at stabalizing housing prises. 1. Housing demand ought to be distinguished as for dwelling or investing and policies applied to these two types of housing demand better to be preferential. 2.Policies that stimulate housing supply, such as supply of economical housing and a reduction of the assignment fee, seem to better measuresin stabalizing housing prices. 3.Money policy should not be apdopted to stabalizing housing prices, for it just works in the shor trun and will raise the housing price and CPI in the lon grun. 4.To avoid fluctuations in the economy, the controling policis should be time-consistant and not be adopted frequently.
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